Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Should the Texans Draft a QB With the No.1 Overall Pick?


With the NFL draft just a couple of days away, I have been looking at many different mock drafts, and watching a lot of NFL analysts that have been talking about the Houston Texans, saying what they should do and which players are a guaranteed lock to go in the top 5 of the draft.

 There has been a lot of praise for the young defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney, to get draft with the No.1 overall selection. However, there has been some people that believe that a quarterback should be taken with that draft selection. Names that have been floating around are, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Blake Bortles is a taller more stature QB who is more of a pro-style player, he has been seen as a player who can go in and contribute  on day one; Johnny Manziel a.k.a. Johnny Football, is a smaller, more elusive player, he isn't the traditional player. Some believe that Manziel, even though he is freakishly athletic and has great play-making ability is still too small to be endure hits from NFL players.

It's a tough decision. Who should the Texans draft: Bortles or Manziel? Which QB is going to take the team from being a No.1 draft pick to Super Bowl champions?... How about neither. Yes, that's right, neither!

In the past 10 years, there have been seven QB's drafted with the No.1 overall pick. How have those draft picks played out thus far? Well, lets take a look at the success rate. We can begin by looking at the draft choices that were QB's since 2004:

  • 2004-Eli Manning (2 Super Bowl wins, with the team he wasn't drafted by)
  • 2005- Alex Smith: Almost considered a bust until two season ago, not really a game changing player, more of a game manager.
  • 2007- JaMarcus Russell: Bust! He's still trying to make it back in the league.
  • 2009- Matt Stafford- Well, he does have the best receiver in the game with Calvin Johnson; one playoff appearance ( loss to the Saints)
  •  2010-Sam Bradford: He's had decent numbers; no playoff appearances, he was also injured two season.
  • 2011- Cam Newton- Had a phenomenal rookie season, statistically; one playoff appearance (loss to San Francisco); Playoff year was more about his defense than him, so lets not think too much about giving him all of the praise for that. 
  • 2012- Andrew Luck- Been to the playoffs first two years and has one playoff win. 
  So, think about it carefully. In the past 10 years how many of those QB's taken have got Super Bowl rings or even appearances?  Two. Eli Manning, who has two Super Bowl appearances and wins, and Alex Smith, who didn't play in the Super Bowl game- Colin Kaepernick is credited with that Super Bowl appearance.  

Is the choice not obvious on who should be taken with the No.1 overall pick, in this years draft... Anyone but a QB. You can find one in later rounds, but you can take a player with freakish talent, like Jadeveon Clowney, pair him with J.J. Watt. You have to face Andrew Luck twice a year. You don't think that combination will make him sweat, just a little? 

I don't believe that it's statistically wise to choose either Bortles or Manziel in this spot, well, not if you want to turn things around fast. If you look at history, you can even see that Houston Texans had more success when they drafted Mario Williams ('06) with the No.1 pick than when they drafted David Carr ('02). Come draft day, I believe that the Houston Texans should draft Clowney, because he is, 1. He is the best player in the draft. 2. He's not a QB.